Blue food demand across geographic and temporal scales

Rosamond L Naylor,Simon R Bush,Stefan Gelcich,David C Little,Blaire P Hunter,Beatrice Crona,Ibrahim Issifu,Ben Belton,Ling Cao,Christopher D Golden,J Zachary Koehn,Shakuntala H Thilsted,Michelle Tigchelaar,Avinash Kishore,U Rashid Sumaila,Malin Jonell,Jessica A Gephart

doi:10.1038/s41467-021-25516-4

Abstract

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of ‘blue foods’, defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Here we analyze the roles of economic, demographic, and geographic factors and preferences in shaping blue food demand, using secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales. Our results show a weak cross-sectional relationship between per capita income and consumption globally when using an aggregate fish metric. Disaggregation by fish species group reveals distinct geographic patterns; for example, high consumption of freshwater fish in China and pelagic fish in Ghana and Peru where these fish are widely available, affordable, and traditionally eaten. We project a near doubling of global fish demand by mid-century assuming continued growth in aquaculture production and constant real prices for fish. Our study concludes that nutritional and environmental consequences of rising demand will depend on substitution among fish groups and other animal source foods in national diets.

Highlights

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of ‘blue foods’, defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand
Unlike other papers that present comprehensive models of fish demand and supply[1,2,3,4,5], this study provides a synthetic analysis based on secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales to characterize the diverse and changing nature of blue food consumption
Our projections of future demand assume that producers are able to supply the quantity of fish demanded at constant real prices, a plausible assumption given the steady growth in global aquaculture production[17,18,19]

Summary

Introduction

Numerous studies have focused on the need to expand production of ‘blue foods’, defined as aquatic foods captured or cultivated in marine and freshwater systems, to meet rising population- and income-driven demand. Unlike other papers that present comprehensive models of fish demand and supply[1,2,3,4,5], this study provides a synthetic analysis based on secondary data from FAO and The World Bank, parameters from published models, and case studies at national to sub-national scales to characterize the diverse and changing nature of blue food consumption It compares consumption patterns for fish and terrestrial meat that are potential substitutes in demand. Since some wild fish are used for fishmeal and fish oil in animal feeds, demand for fish as a feed ingredient is expected to rise with per capita income growth[5] These relationships provide a foundation for assessing both time series and cross-sectional trends in blue food demand within the global food system. Our analysis focuses on patterns of fish consumption for human foods, the overall demand for aquatic animals, algae, and plants encompasses a wide array of industrial uses and animal feed products[31]

Methods

Results

Conclusion