Blue and green water availability under climate change in arid and semi-arid regions

Abstract

Challenges involving water scarcity have raised concerns about sustainability and human well-being in many regions of Iran. Uncertainty related to the effects of climate change further complicates the use of projections for water resources planning. Hence, investigating the impacts of climate change on water resources is essential for their efficient management. In the present study, water availability was assessed under different climate change projections using eight CMIP6 General Circulation Models (GCMs) to create a multi-model ensemble of well-performing GCMs over the Hamedan-Bahar watershed in western Iran for three futures, near (2026 to 2050), mid (2051 to 2075), and far (2076 to 2100). Impacts of climate change on blue and green water availability was assessed by coupling Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT) with modelled climate change projections and applying distribution mapping bias correction under three Shared Socioeconomic Pathways Scenarios (SSPs). The results showed that three GCMs (MIROC6, CMCC-ESM2, and NorESM2-MM) agreed well with observed climate in the region. The mean annual precipitation was projected to decrease at most by 16.3% under the SSP5–8.5 scenario during mid-future. Maximum and minimum temperatures are expected to increase by 2.3 and 2.4 °C, respectively, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario for the far future. The highest reductions of green and blue water storage and blue water flow were projected at 22%, 28.5% and 35%, respectively, under the SSP5–8.5 scenario during the mid-future. In contrast, green flow was projected to increase by 18% under SSP5–8.5 during the far future. Thus, the water resources of Hamedan-Bahar are sensitive to future climatic changes requiring considerations for adaptation strategies to mitigate water deficits.