Blood trail of expansion? Long‐term patterns of livestock depredation by wolves in Poland

Abstract

AbstractAs the wolf Canis lupus populations continue to recover across Europe, livestock depredation becomes increasingly challenging for their effective conservation. We aim to (1) analyze the spatiotemporal variation in wolf attacks on livestock in relation to the landscape structure, livestock species, and the phase of wolf expansion in Poland and (2) discuss the implications for conservation and management in an expanding, protected wolf population. From 2008 to 2018, farmers reported 5499 attacks on livestock with 13,164 killed individuals, and the number of attacks increased 2.7‐fold at the country scale. Sheep were among the most frequently killed livestock, and surplus killing (>2 killed individuals) was relatively common in captive deer and sheep depredation. The attacks were patchily distributed; 59% of all kills occurred in municipalities constituting 1% of the country surface. The probability and number of attacks were positively influenced by forest and pasture cover, and by the occurrence of depredation in previous years. Spatial variation and long‐term dynamics in livestock depredation by wolves can be attributed to different husbandry practices and phases of wolf recovery in three regions of the country. Our results indicate that accelerating increase in depredation rates during the initial phases of wolf recovery is likely to be followed by stabilization or decrease in attacks. A detailed spatiotemporal analysis of wolf–livestock conflict can help in management decisions in areas with ongoing wolf population recovery.