Blood glucose prediction with deep neural networks using weighted decision level fusion

Abstract

Background and Objective: Diabetes mellitus is a chronic disease that requires regular monitoring of blood glucose in the circulatory system. If the amount of glucose in the blood is not regulated constantly, this may have vital consequences for the individual. For this reason, there are many studies in the literature that perform blood glucose (BG) prediction.Methods: Blood glucose prediction is generally performed by using many parameters. In this paper, it was attempted to predict the future blood glucose values of the patient by using only the blood glucose values of diabetes patients’ history. For this purpose, Long short term memory (LSTM), WaveNet and Gated Recurrent Units (GRU) and decision-level combinations of these architectures were used to predict blood glucose. First of all, hyper-parameters were selected for the most efficient operation of these network architectures and experimental studies were conducted using the extended OhioT1DM data set which has blood glucose history of 12 diabetes patients.Results: Experimental studies using 30, 45 and 60 min prediction horizon (PH), the average lowest RMSE value were obtained by the fusion of three networks as 21.90 mg/dl, 29.12 mg/dl, 35.10 mg/dl respectively.Conclusions: When the obtained RMSE value compared to state-of-art studies in the literature, the results show that the proposed method is quite successful for short-term blood glucose prediction. In addition, the proposed fusion method gives a new perspective for future studies in the literature for BG prediction.