Blood- and Imaging-Derived Biomarkers for Oncological Outcome Modelling in Oropharyngeal Cancer: Exploring the Low-Hanging Fruit

Abstract

To assess whether CT-based radiomics and blood-derived biomarkers could improve the prediction of overall survival (OS) and locoregional progression-free survival (LRPFS) in patients with oropharyngeal cancer (OPC) treated with curative-intent RT. Consecutive OPC patients with primary tumors treated between 2005 and 2021 were included. Analyzed clinical variables included gender, age, smoking history, staging, subsite, HPV status, and blood parameters (baseline hemoglobin levels, neutrophils, monocytes, and platelets, and derived measurements). Radiomic features were extracted from the gross tumor volumes (GTVs) of the primary tumor using pyradiomics. Outcomes of interest were LRPFS and OS. Following feature selection, a radiomic score (RS) was calculated for each patient. Significant variables, along with age and gender, were included in multivariable analysis, and models were retained if statistically significant. The models' performance was compared by the C-index. One hundred and five patients, predominately male (71%), were included in the analysis. The median age was 59 (IQR: 52-66) years, and stage IVA was the most represented (70%). HPV status was positive in 63 patients, negative in 7, and missing in 35 patients. The median OS follow-up was 6.3 (IQR: 5.5-7.9) years. A statistically significant association between low Hb levels and poorer LRPFS in the HPV-positive subgroup (p = 0.038) was identified. The calculation of the RS successfully stratified patients according to both OS (log-rank p < 0.0001) and LRPFS (log-rank p = 0.0002). The C-index of the clinical and radiomic model resulted in 0.82 [CI: 0.80-0.84] for OS and 0.77 [CI: 0.75-0.79] for LRPFS. Our results show that radiomics could provide clinically significant informative content in this scenario. The best performances were obtained by combining clinical and quantitative imaging variables, thus suggesting the potential of integrative modeling for outcome predictions in this setting of patients.