Abstract
Abstract We present a preliminary gravitational lensing model for the galaxy-cluster MACS J1149.5+2223 constructed using a new, lensing-potential curving modeling method under development. Multiple images identified before 2015 are used to constrain the model, and we aim to provide a prediction of the relative time delay of the reappearance SN Refsdal before its final measurement is unblinded to us. The predicted time delay of S2-S4 and SX images of SN Refsdal relative to S1 are 9.13 ± 2.63 days, 5.58 ± 3.78 days, 18.98 ± 2.55 days and −332.35 ± 9.32 days, assuming H 0 = 70 km s−1 Mpc−1. Our calculation of the uncertainties is currently under development, and those given above are expected to be underestimated, since they are derived from only a single, best-fitting model.
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