Abstract
The purpose of this investigation is to analyze the failure probability of a blast in a shallow RC tunnel. The field blast tests are carried out, and a refined finite element model (FEM) is established based on LS-DYNA. To account for blast uncertainty, the Monte Carlo method is used to determine 150 blast conditions. A failure evaluation method based on a mechanical performance index is proposed. The probabilistic blast demand model (PBDM) and the probabilistic blast capacity model (PBCM) are established. Finally, a probability assessment framework based on the structural performance index and the vulnerability curve for shallow tunnels are established. According to the findings, when the mass of TNT in the tunnel exceeds 300 kg, the tunnel is in danger of collapsing. At this moment, it is suggested that people enter the tunnel cautiously. The vulnerability curve predicts the failure probability of a tunnel under various blast loads. At the same time, it could assess its structural performance after the disaster.
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