Blackouts in Retransmission Consent Negotiations: Empirical Analysis of Factors Predicting Their Frequency and Duration

Abstract

This paper examines the factors predicting the frequency and duration of local broadcast television blackouts by Multichannel Video Programming Distributors (MVPDs), as a consequence of breakdowns in retransmission consent negotiations. Using a database of 372 retransmission agreements executed between 2011-2018, the paper uses a binomial logistic regression to identify the factors predicting blackouts, and ordinary least squares (OLS) regression for the duration. It finds the broadcasters’ network affiliations, the number of cable subscribers affected by a retransmission agreement, and a time trend to be the most significant predictors.