Abstract
ABSTRACT Black spot (Venturia inaequalis) is a serious fungal disease of apples associated with rain. Control is by use of agrichemicals, but infection still occurs. A first‐order Markov chain probability model was applied to the distribution of spring wet spells for Appleby, for Sep–Dec, 1982–1990. Comparison with risk periods for primary black spot infection showed that, while 1‐day wet spells were the most frequent (41% probability of occurrence), the most frequent occurrence of risk periods was in association with 2‐day wet spells. Long wet spells (up to 18 days) were almost always associated with risk periods, but were infrequent.
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