Black Sea Freezing and Relation to the Winter Conditions in 2006–2021

Abstract

Black Sea freezing in winter is observed regularly in its northern parts and near the Kerch Strait. The reason for this is the relatively shallow northwestern shelf part and the river inflow of the three major European rivers Danube, Dnieper, and Dniester, as well as Don through the Azov Sea, carrying a large amount of fresh water to this part of the Black Sea. The global warming that has been observed in recent decades has made these episodes less intense; nevertheless, they exist and impact people who live n the area. The aim of this study is to analyze the extent of sea-ice variability in the last 15 years, observed by satellite observations, and to describe the weather conditions favorable for freezing to occur. It is found that, in 2006, 2012 and 2017, sea ice extended unusually southward, which is related to the unusually cold winter and weather conditions in these years. The weather patterns associated with the periods of maximal sea ice in the Black Sea are discussed. In addition, we analyze how the winter conditions change in the period 1926–2021 by combining different data sources. The winter is classified as cold, moderate or mild through the Winter Severity Index following a previously published methodology. The findings in our paper could help to monitor and predict these events and to inform the interested end-users.