Black gold falls, black plague arise - An Opec crude oil price forecast using a gray prediction model

Abstract

• The oil market is a gray economic system. • The gray prediction method is one of the most suitable techniques for oil price prediction. • The oil market instability causes the permanent fall in the oil demand by 2030. • Short term projections of the oil price are more appropriate and accurate in the instable periods. • Oil price is predicted to be stablized in the 6–10$/bbl by 2021. In the global economy, crude oil is the most strategic commodity, which plays an important role in determining many regional and international equations. The oil market is the most complex, turbulent, and opaque international financial market. The conditions of these financial markets are well matched to the gray analysis environment. Therefore, the researchers of the present study have proposed the gray prediction model. The results show that using the gray prediction model causes the performance to be significantly improved. The main aim of this paper is to find a model to provide clear projections for the future of oil prices.