Black Economic Gains in the Sixties: A Methodological Critique and Reassessment

Abstract

Recent publications heralding black economic in the sixties are found to share a common preoccupation with gaps (rather than distributions) and to rely on a common methodology. We contend that their findings are, at least in part, an artifact of their method. A new measure of trends in income inequality is developed, resulting in quite different findings. The substantive implications of the pattern of actual gains and losses is discussed. Since the recent publication of the 1970 census data on income distribution, a number of researchers have attempted to assess the magnitude of black economic gains in the previous decade. Most have concluded that these gains have been substantial. In the most well-publicized' of these attempts, Wattenberg and Scammon (1973) called the gains since 1960 a achievement. Others (e.g., Farley and Hermalin, 1972; Freeman, 1973) have been somewhat less euphoric, but have nonetheless pointed to large and meaningful black gains. All have failed to focus on distributional changes and instead have based their analyses in large degree upon comparisons of the ratios of black to white median income over time, which shows a steady increase; and upon comparisons within each group of median income at T, to median income at T2, which invariably shows a greater percentage gain for blacks. Yet there are other data which make these findings suspect. For example, nonwhites made up 26.9 percent of those below the poverty level in 1959, and 31.] percent in 1970 (Bureau of the Census, 1973a). Also, nonwhites made up 20.4 percent of the unemployed population in 1960 and 18.4 percent in 1970 (and this latter figure had increased to 19.8 percent by 1972) (Bureau of the Census, 1973a). And for a more subtle indicator, the ratio of black to white infant mortality rates remained virtually constant from 1959-70, with the black 1970 rate (30.211000) still higher than the white 1950 rate (26.811000) (Bureau of the Census, 1973a). These, and a great many other statistics from related areas, seem at variance with the notion of substantial black economic gains. Wattenberg and Scammon (1973:41) shrug off such contraindicators by asserting that . . the fact that some blacks have been 'left behind' does not in itself negate the fact of massive black success. But the existence of a prospering majority is moot and has been debated at length. Those insisting on substantial gains point to the undeniably larger ratio of black to white median income, while those denying success point to similar black-white absolute gains in median family income and discount ratio gains. In a recent article