Abstract
Bivariate joint probability analysis of flood hazard at river confluence
Highlights
Flood wave is the result of the numerous natural processes, such as rainfall distribution and intensity, catchment characteristics and its area, land use, water reservoirs, etc
It is established that, during the flood wave occurrence there is correlation between some hydrological characteristics which may have an impact on the design of flood control measures
In Slovak territory the coincidence of multiple flood waves caused the flood with time return period of 100-year on Tisa and Bodrog River in year 2000
Summary
Assessing the statistical significance of floods in the complex hydrological conditions that exist at the confluence of the main river and its tributaries, as well as the choice of hydrological design parameters for flood protection in these areas is one of the main tasks in the current hydrology. The main aim of this paper is a joint bivariate frequency analysis of annual peak discharges and synchronously occurred maximum discharges at the main river and its tributary. Selected copulas were used to illustrate the joint occurrence probabilities and joint return periods of the discharge pairs and to determine the joint probabilities of measured discharges. Results of such analyses provide comprehensive information about flood situations where a devastating effect may be increased in the case were floods occur at the same time on the main river and its tributary.
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