Biting the Bullet

Abstract

Deciding whether to run for office can be very difficult, even for high-profile potential candidates or experienced politicians. Consider the case of Illinois Attorney General Lisa Madigan, who was wooed by Barack Obama to seek a U.S. Senate seat in 2010. Madigan was thought to be the clear favorite in the race for the open seat. Not only did Rahm Emanuel (then-chief of staff to President Obama) deem Madigan the “most popular political figure in Illinois,” but Madigan's father is also Illinois House Speaker Michael J. Madigan, whose connections and influence played a major role in his daughter's previous campaigns. In fact, Congressman Mark Kirk, the strongest potential candidate on the Republican side of the aisle, made clear that he would not enter a race against Madigan. Yet after months of “agonizing” over the decision, Madigan informed supporters and the media that she would not run for the seat: “I have a job that I love right now and I also have a family that I love and I plan on continuing to serve as your attorney general.” In another example, Congressman Sam Graves (R–MO) announced in January 2011 that he would not challenge Democratic U.S. Senator Claire McCaskill for her seat in 2012. The Republicans’ prospects of winning the seat in a race expected to be one of the most competitive of the cycle, regardless of their nominee, would have been brightest if Graves had thrown his hat into the ring. First elected to the House of Representatives in 2000, Congressman Graves was thought to have a unique ability to tap into McCaskill's base in Kansas City. Moreover, his rural background, opposition to the Democrats’ stimulus package, and recent ascension to chair of the House Small Business Committee were expected to carry broad appeal with Missouri voters. Following drawn-out speculation about his political ambition, however, Graves finally issued a public statement: “It was an agonizing decision for me, determining the best way for me to serve and my ability to get there. I believe it is a winnable race for me. However, I also believe that I can have a greater impact on federal policy in the next six years as a chairman in the House.”