Bitcoin Price Prediction Model Development Using Convolutional Neural Network (CNN) and Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM)

Abstract

Cryptocurrency is a virtual currency that can be used as a financial or economic standard, foreign currency reserve, and as a means of payment in some countries. The value that goes up and down every time is not easy to predict using logic. This is a problem for investors, besides that investors lack knowledge about the direction of crypto money movement. In addition, there is no system that can predict the price of Bitcoin, so this can cause investors to take the wrong steps in transactions and can cause losses. To avoid this risk, a system is needed that can predict bitcoin prices using data mining techniques, namely forecasting, the algorithms used are CNN and LSTM. The data used is Bitcoin closing price data from January 1, 2017, to April 26, 2023. The data is divided into 80% training data and 20% testing data. The prediction results are evaluated using MAPE which gets a MAPE value of 0.037 or 3.7% in the CNN algorithm, while the LSTM algorithm gets a value of 0.065 or 6.5%. The MAPE results of the two algorithms are in the MAPE range <10%, so it can be said that the ability of the forecasting model is very good so that it can be used as a reference to determine the prediction of bitcoin prices in the next few periods.