Birth rates in post-socialist Serbia, Slovenia and North Macedonia - spatial differentiation and recent trends

Abstract

This research paper focuses on the temporal and spatial variations of birth rates in Serbia, Slovenia, and North Macedonia from 2000 to 2022. One of the main objectives is to identify the factors that have led to differences among these three former Yugoslav republics, taking into account their specific demographic characteristics, levels of economic development after the dissolution of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia, and the influence of historical events on demographic processes. National-level data and data at the NUTS 3 statistical regional level were used to accurately capture regional disparities within each country. Data from population censuses conducted by national statistical institutes, as well as Eurostat data, serve as the basis for the analysis of these processes. To provide a comprehensive understanding of the demographic landscape in the region, a range of factors were considered. Factors such as inherited demographic conditions, migrations, economic influences, population policy measures, and the impacts of war events in the former Yugoslavia are of crucial importance for a deeper understanding of the complex dynamics of shaping long-term birth rate trends in the region. The research pays special attention to spatial differences in terms of heterogeneity in birth rates both between the countries and within each country at the regional level. Furthermore, the study examines the dynamics of the demographic transition process in the previously mentioned countries. The selection of Serbia, Slovenia, and North Macedonia for this research is motivated by their specific demographic characteristics and varying levels of economic development following the breakup of the Socialist Federal Republic of Yugoslavia. By focusing on these three countries, the study tends to contribute to a deeper understanding of the interplay between demographic trends, economic factors, and socio-historical context in the region.