Birth cohort effects on incidence of lung cancers: a population-based study in Nagasaki, Japan.

Abstract

Smoking prevalence remains high (around 60%) among Japanese males, but smoking initiation among males born in the 1930s decreased by approximately 10% due to economic difficulties following World War II. The present study was designed to examine whether this temporary decline in smoking initiation influenced the subsequent incidence of lung cancers, especially adenocarcinoma. Trends of lung cancer incidence by histological type in both sexes were investigated using data from the population‐based cancer registry in Nagasaki, Japan, from 1986 through 1995. During this period, 5668 males and 2309 females were diagnosed as having lung cancer, and the overall incidence of lung cancers among both sexes remained stable. However, males aged 55–59 years showed a decrease in the age‐specific incidence of adenocarcinoma and squamous‐cell carcinoma (P < 0.05 and P < 0.01, respectively). In birth cohort analyses, the incidence of adenocarcinoma and squamous‐cell carcinoma was lower in the 1935–1939 birth male cohort than in the successive cohorts. The incidence of lung cancers among females with low smoking prevalence did not change with birth cohort. The low smoking initiation among the 1935–1939 birth male cohort appeared to have resulted in a decreased incidence of adenocarcinoma and squamous cell carcinoma among middle‐aged Japanese males. The present study suggests that smoking prevention has an effect in reducing the incidence of lung adenocarcinoma, as well as squamous‐cell carcinoma, among smokers.