Abstract
We investigate what structural aspects of a collection of twelve empirical temporal networks of human contacts are important to disease spreading. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the two canonical models of infectious disease epidemiology—the Susceptible-Infectious-Susceptible (SIS) and Susceptible-Infectious-Removed (SIR) models. The results from these simulations are compared to reference data where we eliminate structures in the interevent intervals, the time to the first contact in the data, or the time from the last contact to the end of the sampling. The picture we find is that the birth and death of links, and the total number of contacts over a link, are essential to predict outbreaks. On the other hand, the exact times of contacts between the beginning and end, or the interevent interval distribution, do not matter much. In other words, a simplified picture of these empirical data sets that suffices for epidemiological purposes is that links are born, is active with some intensity, and die.
Highlights
Birth and death of links control disease spreading in empirical contact networks Petter Holme1,2,3,4 & Fredrik Liljeros[3,4]
Even if network epidemiology is a step towards greater realism, it comes with a big simplification—it ignores the timings of contacts
It is easy to see that the latter, ongoing link picture is statistically inconsistent with our empirical data
Summary
Birth and death of links control disease spreading in empirical contact networks Petter Holme1,2,3,4 & Fredrik Liljeros[3,4]. By analytical and computational techniques, characterized how such bursty interevent intervals alter the propagation speed and final extent of emerging outbreaks[16,17,18] To take this approach to modeling disease spreading on temporal networks is to use the ongoing link picture. We scan the entire parameter spaces of the SIR and SIS models and compare the predictions for the original data sets to modified data where everything is the same as the original, except the feature we are investigating (the heterogeneity of the interevent intervals, the times between the beginning of the sampling and the first contact and between the last contact and the end of the sampling) By this procedure, we can compare the effects of these structures
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