Bird migration and risk for H5N1 transmission into Qinghai Lake, China.

Abstract

The highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 virus still cause devastating effects to humans, agricultural poultry flocks, and wild birds. Wild birds are also detected to carry H5N1 over long distances and are able to introduce it into new areas during migration. In this article, our objective is to provide lists of bird species potentially involved in the introduction of highly pathogenic avian influenza H5N1 in Qinghai Lake, which is an important breeding and stopover site for aquatic birds along the Central Asian Flyway. Bird species were classified according to the following behavioral and ecological factors: migratory status, abundance, degree of mixing species and gregariousness, and the prevalence rate of H5N1 virus. Most of the high-risk species were from the family Anatidae, order Anseriformes (9/14 in spring, 11/15 in fall). We also estimated the relative risk of bird species involved by using a semi-quantitative method; species from family Anatidae accounted for over 39% and over 91% of the total risk at spring and fall migration periods, respectively. Results also show the relative risk for each bird aggregating site in helping to identify high-risk areas. This work may also be instructive and meaningful to the avian influenza surveillance in the breeding, stopover, and wintering sites besides Qinghai Lake along the Central Asian Flyway.