Abstract
Background: With the worldwide spread of the novel coronavirus (COVID-19), the global economy has entered a cold winter, and the International Monetary Fund predicts that the global economy will shrink by about 3% in 2020. The outbreak of the epidemic has also caused heavy losses to the Chinese economy. In the first quarter of 2020, actual GDP fell sharply for the first time by 6.8% year-on-year for the first time. This is the first decline since record. Then, according to the data from the business survey in March, China's economy has improved compared with February, which shows that the economy has rebounded under the influence of policies. Judging from the current situation, although China has passed the peak period of the epidemic, affected by the high cases abroad, it can only be carried out slowly for the resumption of production. Enterprises, as micro-individuals under the macro economy, need to pass through analyzing the dynamic management of the enterprise to deepen the reform of the commercial system and stimulate the vitality of the enterprise. This will also provide data support for the government formulating relevant policies, which is conducive to the synergy of various policies and enhance the momentum of economic recovery. On the other hand, we choose tourism as our specific research object. Thus, we need to set different scenarios according to the development situation of the epidemic, evaluate the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on China's tourism industry, and discuss tourism development and opportunities in the post-epidemic era from the aspects of tourism's response to the epidemic and the development trend of the tourism after the epidemic [4].
Highlights
The COVID-19 has affected all walks of life in the national economy
As can be seen from Tables 4&5 above, it is precisely because of the effective policies adopted by Jiangsu Province in the fight against the epidemic, its economy is less affected by the epidemic, it can be seen that Jiangsu Province has its own strength
When predicting the impact of COVID-19 on the first quarter, semi-annual and annual tourism in 2020 based on different scenarios, different explanatory variables and leading indicator data are selected, so the prediction results are mainly used to observe the overall impact of tourism on the epidemic trends, not accurate numerical comparisons or time summation. It can be seen from the empirical results that the policy has a significant effect on the development of the enterprise, and different enterprises have adopted different coping strategies according to their actual conditions
Summary
The COVID-19 has affected all walks of life in the national economy. After over 4 months fighting against the virus, it is basically under the control, the domestic economy is facing a restart in the post-epidemic era [2,3]. Enterprises, as micro-individuals under the macro economy, need to pass through analyzing the dynamic management of the enterprise to deepen the reform of the commercial system and stimulate the vitality of the enterprise. This will provide data support for the government formulating relevant policies, which is conducive to the synergy of various policies and enhance the momentum of economic recovery. We need to set different scenarios according to the development situation of the epidemic, evaluate the impact of the novel coronavirus epidemic on China’s tourism industry, and discuss tourism development and opportunities in the post-epidemic era from the aspects of tourism’s response to the epidemic and the development trend of the tourism after the epidemic [1]
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