Abstract
We examine the similarities and differences of specific deltaic areas in parallel, under the project DEltas, vulnerability and Climate Change: Migration and Adaptation (DECCMA). The main reason for studying Deltas is their potential vulnerability to climate change and sea level rise, which generates important challenges for livelihoods. We provide insights into the current socioeconomic and biophysical states of the Volta Delta (Ghana), Mahanadi Delta (India) and Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna (India and Bangladesh). Hybrid methods of input-output (IO) construction are used to develop environmentally extended IO models for comparing the economic characteristics of these delta regions with the rest of the country. The main sources of data for regionalization were country level census data, statistics and economic surveys and data on consumption, trade, agricultural production and fishing harvests. The Leontief demand-driven model is used to analyze land use in the agricultural sector of the Delta and to track the links with final demand. In addition, the Hypothetical Extraction Method is used to evaluate the importance of the hypothetical disappearance of a sector (e.g., agriculture). The results show that, in the case of the Indian deltas, more than 60% of the cropland and pasture land is devoted to satisfying demands from regions outside the delta. While in the case of the Bangladeshi and Ghanaian deltas, close to 70% of the area harvested is linked to internal demand. The results also indicate that the services, trade and transportation sectors represent 50% of the GDP in the deltas. Still, agriculture, an activity directly exposed to climate change, plays a relevant role in the deltas’ economies—we have estimated that the complete disappearance of this activity would entail GDP losses ranging from 18 to 32%.
Highlights
According to 2003 data, 2385 million people lived within the world’s coastal limit, which represents 41% of the global population
In the three Asian deltas the contribution of the services, trade and transportation sectors represent more than 50% of the total GDP of the economy, while in the Volta they represent 40%
With regards to employment distribution by gender, the results shown in Figure S12 in the Supplementary Material reveal, for Ghana, that out of the total males employed in the Non-Delta, 73% work to satisfy the final demand (FD) of the Non-Delta itself, 25% for Rest of the World (RoW), while 2% to work to satisfy the FD of the Volta Delta region
Summary
According to 2003 data, 2385 million people lived within the world’s coastal limit, which represents 41% of the global population. Various studies estimated expected growth of the population living in the low-elevation coastal zones [2,3] under different scenarios [4]. Deltas have been identified as especially vulnerable to climate change and induced sea level rise [8,9] with foreseeable environmental, social and economic costs (Nicholls, et al [8] place the global costs of adaptation to sea level rise -varying by elevation- in the range of 26–89 billion dollars per year, by 2040). It has been estimated that more than 500 million people currently live in deltas, adding to arguments for protection [9,10,11,12]
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