Abstract
Keeping global warming well below 2 °C entails radically transforming global energy production and use. However, one important mitigation option, the use of bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), has so far received only limited attention as regards the sociopolitical preconditions for its deployment. Using questionnaire data from UN climate change conferences, this paper explores the influence of expertise, actor type, and origin on respondents’ a) preferences for investing in BECCS, b) views of the role of BECCS as a mitigation technology, globally and domestically, and c) assessment of possible domestic barriers to BECCS deployment. Non-parametric statistical analysis reveals the low priority assigned to investments in BECCS, the anticipated high political and social constraints on deployment, and a gap between its low perceived domestic potential to contribute to mitigation and a slightly higher perceived global potential. The most important foreseen deployment constraints are sociopolitical, which in turn influence the economic feasibility of BECCS. However, these constraints (e.g. lack of policy incentives and social acceptance) are poorly captured in climate scenarios, a mismatch indicating a need for both complemented model scenarios and further research into sociopolitical preconditions for BECCS.
Highlights
To keep global warming well below 2 °C, current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be halved by mid century and must continue to decline [1]
The respondents disagree with the statement that the electricity production system of their country of residence is low carbon and agree that investments in technology are required for the system to become low carbon in the long term
There is a positive correlation between the view that current electricity production system is low carbon and prioritizing investments in bioenergy with carbon capture and storage (BECCS), but the correlation is weak (Spearman’s rho = 0.151, p = .000)
Summary
To keep global warming well below 2 °C, current greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions must be halved by mid century and must continue to decline [1] This will require rapid changes in energy systems and land use practices. The SSP database assembles global energy system scenarios that account for recent technological developments, such as solar and wind power, and that have integrated land use models with improved representation of biomass availability [3]. It is a largely unproven technology, BECCS features strongly in long-term climate scenarios. While there have been only small changes in the AR5 and SSP median scenarios, the ranges of BECCS use have narrowed significantly in the latter, at least partially attributable to fewer scenarios
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