Abstract
Bioenergy is expected to play an important role in long-run climate change mitigation strategies as highlighted by many integrated assessment model (IAM) scenarios. These scenarios, however, also show a very wide range of results, with uncertainty about bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. To date, the underlying differences in model assumptions and parameters for the range of results have not been conveyed. Here we explore the models and results of the 33rd study of the Stanford Energy Modeling Forum to elucidate and explore bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes. We first develop and report consistent bioenergy technology characterizations and modeling details. We evaluate the bioenergy technology specifications through a series of analyses—comparison with the literature, model intercomparison, and an assessment of bioenergy technology projected deployments. We find that bioenergy technology coverage and characterization varies substantially across models, spanning different conversion routes, carbon capture and storage opportunities, and technology deployment constraints. Still, the range of technology specification assumptions is largely in line with bottom-up engineering estimates. We then find that variation in bioenergy deployment across models cannot be understood from technology costs alone. Important additional determinants include biomass feedstock costs, the availability and costs of alternative mitigation options in and across end-uses, the availability of carbon dioxide removal possibilities, the speed with which large scale changes in the makeup of energy conversion facilities and integration can take place, and the relative demand for different energy services.
Highlights
Studies have highlighted that bioenergy could play a potentially significant role in the long-run management of climate change, substantially lowering the cost of realizing climate goals, and even facilitating the feasibility of those goals (Rose et al 2014; Clarke et al 2014; Luckow et al 2010; Klein et al 2014; Kriegler et al 2014; Van Vuuren et al 2010)
The EMF-33 study has led to a number of research articles, including an overview of the scenarios and projections (Bauer et al 2018), and a series of thematic papers on the importance and sensitivity of bioenergy with CO2 capture and geologic storage (BECCS) in mitigation strategies (Muratori et al 2020), bioenergy and transport sector decarbonization (LeBlanc et al 2020), bioenergy trade (Daioglou et al 2020), as well as a detailed assessment of biomass feedstock supply modeling and implications (Rose et al 2020; Hanssen et al 2019)
The present paper focuses on technoeconomic assumptions of advanced bioenergy technologies and their effect on the use of bioenergy in climate change mitigation strategies
Summary
Studies have highlighted that bioenergy could play a potentially significant role in the long-run management of climate change, substantially lowering the cost of realizing climate goals, and even facilitating the feasibility of those goals (Rose et al 2014; Clarke et al 2014; Luckow et al 2010; Klein et al 2014; Kriegler et al 2014; Van Vuuren et al 2010). Many of these same studies have indicated significant variation in results, illustrating that bioenergy’s potential role is highly uncertain regarding bioenergy conversion technology deployment and biomass feedstock supply. While Bauer et al (2018) gives an overview on bioenergy deployment scenarios and a broad sensitivity analysis, and Rose et al (2020) provides an overview on biomass supply modeling, this paper elucidates and explores bioenergy technology specifications and constraints that underlie projected bioenergy outcomes
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