Abstract
Extreme and persistent reductions in annual precipitation and an increase in the mean diurnal temperature range have resulted in patch scale forest mortality following the summer of 2010–2011 within the Forest study area near Perth, Western Australia. The impacts of 20 bioclimatic indicators derived from temperature, precipitation and of actual and potential evapotranspiration are quantified. We found that spatially aggregated seasonal climatologies across the study area show 2011 with an annual mean of 17.7 °C (± 5.3 °C) was 1.1 °C warmer than the mean over recent decades (1981–2011,- 16.6 °C ± 4.6 °C) and the mean has been increasing over the last decade. Compared to the same period, 2010–2011 summer maximum temperatures were 1.4 °C (31.6 °C ± 2.0 °C) higher and the annual mean diurnal temperature range (Tmax−Tmin) was 1.6 °C higher (14.7 °C ± 0.5 °C). In 2009, the year before the forest mortality began, annual precipitation across the study area was 69% less (301 mm ± 38 mm) than the mean of 1981–2010 (907 mm ± 69 mm). Using Système Pour l'Observation de la Terre mission 5 (SPOT-5) satellite imagery captured after the summer of 2010–2011 we map a broad scale forest mortality event across the Forested study area. This satellite-climatology based methodology provides a means of monitoring and mapping similar forest mortality events- a critical contribution to our understanding the dynamical bioclimatic drivers of forest mortality events.
Highlights
Regional drought and heat stress over the past 30 years has resulted in climate-driven forest and woodland mortality events globally [1]
The expert assessment of the 135 km2 grid resulted in greater accuracy in the detection of patches of mortality (POM), 85% hit versus 74% missed, as compared to grid cells containing no death at all (Table 3)
These results suggest the bioclimatic factors preconditioning the POM across the study area were: 1. A succession of warm summers with summer maximum temperatures in 2010–2011 1.4 °C
Summary
Regional drought and heat stress over the past 30 years has resulted in climate-driven forest and woodland mortality events globally [1]. Growing evidence suggests that as climates dry and warm the risks of biodiversity loss [8] and severe wildfires increase [9]. Such dramatic landscape scale transformations are not likely to occur rapidly, rather evolve as a response to abiotic [10] and biotic changes and the signs of change are already beginning to emerge [1,11]. As with other Mediterranean climates, the vegetation of southwest Western Australia (SWWA) is threatened by these changes
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