Bio-Geophysical Suitability Mapping for Chinese Cabbage of East Asia from 2001 to 2020

Abstract

The cultivation of Chinese cabbage is a crucial source of daily vegetable supply for both human consumption and livestock feed, particularly in East Asian countries. However, changes in global climate and land usage have resulted in significant shifts in the ecological conditions suitable for Chinese cabbage production, thereby threatening its productivity. To address this issue, this study was conducted to map the bio-geophysical suitability of Chinese cabbage in East Asia (Japan, Northeast China, South Korea, and North Korea) from 2001 to 2020. This study integrated six key factors—temperature, rainfall, photosynthetically active radiation (PAR), soil nitrogen, soil pH, and soil texture—into a seasonal and monthly bio-geophysical suitability assessment using a GIS-based Analytic Hierarchy Process–Multiple-Criteria Decision-Making Analysis (AHP-MCDA). The levels of bio-geophysical suitability were categorized into four levels: optimal, suitable, marginal, and unsuitable. The findings of the study firstly indicate that summer is the optimal season for Chinese cabbage cultivation, as it was found to have the highest level of optimal suitability among the four seasons in East Asia. South Korea has the largest percentage of optimal and suitable areas compared to the other three countries. Secondly, this study also conducted a comparison analysis between bio-geophysical suitability and Normalized Difference Vegetation Index (NDVI) over 20 years, and the results show good consistency between the two indicators, with the highest R2 value being 0.61. Thirdly, the comparison between bio-geophysical suitability and production data in two villages in Japan demonstrates that an increase in suitability from 0.28 to 0.32 indicates a significant increase in production. Production would stay stable even with further increases in suitability. Finally, two case studies with monthly comparisons of bio-geophysical suitability across Japan and East Asia in 2020 provide an effective benchmark for determining optimal sowing and harvest times. This study’s results can provide important insights into the trade of Chinese cabbage and support the development of agricultural insurance programs both for farmers and insurance companies. Furthermore, this approach may also be applicable for the assessment of the suitability of other crops.