Binary classification model to predict developmental toxicity of industrial chemicals in zebrafish

Abstract

The identification of industrial chemicals, which may cause developmental effects, is of great importance for an early detection of hazardous chemicals. Accordingly, categorical quantitative structure‐activity relationship (QSAR) models were developed, based on developmental toxicity profile data for zebrafish from the ToxCast Phase I testing, to predict the toxicity of a large set of high and low production volume chemicals (H/LPVCs). QSARs were created using linear (LDA), quadratic, and partial least squares‐discriminant analysis with different chemical descriptors. The predictions of the best model (LDA) were compared with those obtained by the freely available QSAR model VEGA, created based on a dataset with a different chemical domain. The results showed that despite similar accuracy (AC) of both models, the LDA model is more specific than VEGA and shows a better agreement between sensitivity (SE) and specificity (SP). Applying a 90% confidence level on the LDA model led to even better predictions showing SE of 0.92, AC of 0.95, and geometric mean of SE and SP (G) of 0.96 for the prediction set. The LDA model predicted 608 H/LPVCs as toxicants among which 123 chemicals fall inside the AD of the VEGA model, which predicted 112 of those as toxicants. Among the 112 chemicals predicted as toxic H/LPVCs, 23 have been previously reported as developmental toxicants. The here presented LDA model could be used to identify and prioritize H/LPVCs for subsequent developmental toxicity assessment, as a screening tool of potential developmental effects of new chemicals, and to guide synthesis of safer alternative chemicals. © 2016 The Authors Journal of Chemometrics Published by John Wiley & Sons Ltd