Abstract

The UK’s political decision to leave the European Union has influenced the German economy in two main ways. First, uncertainty over the potential future impact of Brexit has forced businesses to adapt to the new situation according to their risk profile. Since the so-called Brexit referendum adaptive arrangements by firms have been increasingly in evidence. Second, even though the actual impact of the exit will depend on its detailed terms and conditions, enterprises need to make early adjustments to maximise their profits, earnings and utility. As long as the exact conditions of Brexit are unclear, only a rough picture can be drawn of the expected adaptations at both the micro- and macroeconomic levels. The author outlines the current state of bilateral trade between Britain and Germany and highlights some potential impacts of Brexit. In 2016, the UK ranked third among Germany’s largest export markets and was No. 11 among the country’s top import partners. This means that restrictions in bilateral trade could be particularly painful for German exporters.

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