Big multi-step ship motion forecasting using a novel hybrid model based on real-time decomposition, boosting algorithm and error correction framework

Abstract

Big multi-step ship motion forecasting plays an essential role as ship safety warning in maritime operations. However, big multi-step prediction will weaken the correlation of time series and introduce large error accumulation. Real-time prediction also requires a simple prediction model structure, data input-output relationship in line with the actual application, and a high prediction accuracy. To realize the above requirements, a hybrid big multi-step forecasting model is proposed based on real-time wavelet packet decomposition (RTWPD), outlier robust extreme learning machine (ORELM), boosting algorithm, and least squares support vector machine (LSSVM)-based error correction method. Taking 10-step, 20-step, and 30-step as the research objects of big multi-step prediction, two sets of ship roll and pitch motion data obtained by practical experiment are provided to complete four comparison experiments, including the comparison of different decomposition algorithms, the comparison of different classical forecasting models, the comparison of different error correction methods and the comparison of the proposed model with different benchmark models. Taking the 10-step, 20-step, and 30-step prediction results of the pitch of dataset #2 as an example, the mean absolute errors (MAEs) of the proposed model are 0.1619°, 0.1742°, and 0.1808°, respectively; and the minimum Diebold-Mariano (DM) value is 4.88, which is greater than the upper limit of the 1 % confidence level, indicating that the prediction results of the proposed model differ significantly from those of the other models. And the root mean square error (RMSE) of the proposed model is about 0.20° for different data sets and different ship motions. The experimental results indicate that the proposed RTWPD-ORELM-AdaBoost.MRT-LSSVM (RWOALS) model is stable and feasible in practical applications, and it can provide reliable guidance for maritime operations.