Big History and Singularity as Metaphors, Hypotheses, and Predictions

Abstract

The main topics of this chapter are the (1) correlations between geological, biological, and social evolution, (2) the reality of accelerating evolutionary processes, as well as (3) the possibility of combining them into an integrated sequence tending to the point of singularity. It is postulated that there are two main patterns of evolutionary processes. The first pattern is a pulsating evolution, consisting of long periods of gradual evolution with a more or less constant speed, separated by shorter periods of crises (periods of rapid evolution). The second pattern includes two components of evolution—one sharply slowing and the other sharply accelerating. Very fast hyperexponential and hyperbolic laws of deceleration occurred during the formation of our Universe, Solar System, and planet Earth, while acceleration occurred throughout Earth-based evolution (including social evolution). Social history can be presented as a continuation of biological history. However, social evolution acts not as a continuation, but as a built-in mechanism of its own self-destruction. Presumably, artificial intelligence and interference with the human genome will play this same role as the social revolution did (see below Chapter “Technological Achievements of the Future as the Path of Destruction of Habitual Human Society?”). Much attention is paid to the most important phase transitions of biological and social evolution, described in the works of Raymond Kurzweil, Theodore Modis, and Alexander Panov, which represent hyperbolic growth, composed of geometric progressions of decreasing intervals between phase transitions with a factor in the 2.5–3 range. This factor is most likely due to psychological reasons, allowing us to recognize confidently distinct neighboring objects (intervals, objects on the map, etc.). Such geometric progressions are often found in descriptions of the geological environment and geological time. The interval lengths of the geochronological (stratigraphic) scale act as an acceleration measure of biological evolution, also with a hyperbolic trend. As a result, it is concluded that accelerations of biological and social evolution are real processes, but they have a complex composition and intermittent nature. There also remains a bias because recent evolutionary stages are perceived to have greater impact than earlier stages. However, segmentation of history, with the help of phase transition points, is necessary, if not for explanation, then for the perception and understanding of both human and Earth history.