Abstract
Ever since the pandemic of Coronavirus disease (COVID-19) emerged in Wuhan, China, it has been recognized as a global threat and several studies have been carried out nationally and globally to predict the outbreak with varying levels of dependability and accuracy. Also, the mobility restrictions have had a widespread impact on people's behavior such as fear of using public transportation (traveling with unknown passengers in the closed area). Securing an appropriate level of safety during the pandemic situation is a highly problematic issue that resulted from the transportation sector which has been hit hard by COVID-19. This paper focuses on developing an intelligent computing model for forecasting the outbreak of COVID-19. The autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) machine learning model is used to develop the best model for twenty-one worst-affected states of India and six worst-hit countries of the world including India. The best ARIMA models are used for predicting the daily-confirmed cases for 90 days future values of six worst-hit countries of the world and six high incidence states of India. The goodness-of-fit measures for the model achieved 85% MAPE for all the countries and all states of India. The above computational analysis will be able to throw some light on the planning and management of healthcare systems and infrastructure.
Highlights
In the end, The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to global public health
The best autoregressive integrated moving average (ARIMA) models developed for six high incidence countries of the world and six severely affected states of
The ARIMA model selected for the UK is not the best fit
Summary
The COVID-19 (SARS-CoV-2) pandemic poses an unprecedented threat to global public health. It has been reported as the most harmful contagious disease since the 1918 H1N1 influenza pandemic. According to the World Health Organization (WHO), COVID-19 situation report [1] as on March 31st, 2021, the pandemic has infected more than 128 million people worldwide with the USA reporting the highest number of cases (30,462,210), followed by Brazil (12,748,747), India (12,221,665), France (4,705,068), Russia (4,494,234) and United Kingdom(4,359,982) on the sixth position. The SARS-CoV-2 virus belongs to the β-coronavirus family which is prevalent and has many possible natural hosts This characteristic of the virus creates major hindrances for the prevention and cure of the infection. The identification of infected people is very much important for the reduction
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
