Bibliometric Performance and Future Relevance of Virtual Manufacturing Technology in the Fourth Industrial Revolution

Abstract

Virtual manufacturing (VM) technology emerged in the 1980s as a revolutionary strategy to optimize and streamline the entire product/service manufacturing lifecycle. However, over the years, its popularity appears to have waned. Further, the advent of the fourth industrial revolution (4IR) or Industry 4.0 brings with it other integrated digital technologies, including the Internet of Things (IoT), Blockchain, and digital twin (DT), among others. DT offers functions like VM plus other benefits, including intelligent manufacturing, to revolutionize future manufacturing operations activities and predictive capability using real-time data. This paper employs bibliographic metadata from publications indexed on SCOPUS to evaluate the recent trends in VM research and develop predictive models to forecast VM’s future trajectory and relevance in 4IR. The results of the bibliometric evaluation of VM-related scientific literature publications show a rapidly declining research productivity and highlight an exponential decline from the mid-2000s. This period of VM publication decline coincides with the advent of 4IR and DT technology, which are trending. The results of the predictive analytics using the quadratic regression model created in this study to forecast the future relevance of VM in the 4IR era suggest that VM publications show a similar conclusion. VM research output increased until 2009 and then started decreasing exponentially. The quadratic model implies an exponential decrease in yearly VM publications. Future works can evaluate DT and VM research trends from the last two decades.