Abstract

BackgroundThe development of labour productivity is relevant for accurately planning future staffing requirements, especially in sectors where technological developments may drive labour substitution. The present study investigates how labour productivity has developed across Dutch medical specialists (2007–2017) and discusses its implications for workforce planning, also in relation to the existing literature.MethodsA regression model is developed in which the number of full-time equivalents is related to production (admissions), hospital characteristics and a trend parameter. The trend parameter captures the average annual change in the number of full-time equivalents per production output and is a measure for labour productivity. The model is applied to a micro-data set of Dutch hospitals in the period 2007–2017 across 24 different specialties using regression methods.ResultsThe results indicate an increase in the number of full-time equivalents per admission has increased for most specialisms and that labour productivity has thus decreased. However, there is considerable heterogeneity and uncertainty across different specialisms.ConclusionsThe results amplify the issue of medical personnel shortages driven by the growing demand for health care. The research outcomes are linked to the existing literature regarding physicians’ productivity. Changes in accountability such as using relative value units, incentive payments, use of staff and mid-level providers, and technology have been discussed, and some consensus has been reached.

Highlights

  • In order to meet the future demand for care, it is important to train enough medical care staff in good time

  • We have provided productivity trend estimates across different medical specialists in The Netherlands for the period 2007–2017, regressing Full-time equivalents (FTE) per specialism on production and a trend reflecting technical change, using detailed hospital data

  • The literature review shows that attention has been paid to physician productivity for many decades

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Summary

Introduction

In order to meet the future demand for care, it is important to train enough medical care staff in good time. Socioeconomic factors are relevant since lower income or education groups may have poor health habits such as smoking, poor diet, and living in less desirable neighbourhoods that may have poorer environmental quality. The Advisory Committee on Medical Manpower Planning in the Netherlands (Capaciteitsorgaan) compiles three-yearly estimates of the future healthcare professional capacity required to meet demand for hospital services. The development of labour productivity is relevant for accurately planning future staffing requirements, especially in sectors where technological developments may drive labour substitution. The present study investigates how labour productivity has developed across Dutch medical specialists (2007–2017) and discusses its implications for workforce planning, in relation to the existing literature

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