Abstract

Bias reduction of a conditional maximum likelihood estimator for a Gaussian second-order moving average model

Highlights

  • Estimators of unknown parameters must be consistent

  • We show the bias of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters for a Gaussian second-order moving average (MA(2)) model followed by the method in [12]

  • We propose a new estimator below based on the corrected bias and discuss the corrected estimators under a pure Gaussian MA(2) model in detail using the bias and the mean squared errors (MSEs) in the simulation study

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Summary

Introduction

Estimators of unknown parameters must be consistent. The consistency is ensured when we have large samples. We show the bias of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators of unknown parameters for a Gaussian second-order moving average (MA(2)) model followed by the method in [12]. The bias of the conditional maximum likelihood estimators of the unknown parameters given (2) for the Gaussian MA(1) model is. The conditional log-likelihood function using the finite number of εs for the Gaussian MA(2) model given (4) is expressed as. The high-order differentiations of the conditional log-likelihood function (5) are required to obtain the bias and the MSEs of the maximum likelihood estimators and Lemma 2.2 will be used for the calculations. An asymptotic expansion of the bias of the maximum likelihood estimator is given by the following: Lemma 2.3 (See Barndorff-Nielsen and Cox (1994) [5, p.

Main results
Simulation study
Evaluation of asymptotic variances
Estimator of σ We express the bias of σ as
Proof of theorems
Practical examples
A Lemmas
B Proof of lemmas and propositions

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