Bias in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth using left truncated data

Abstract

Restriction to analysis of births that survive past a specified gestational age (typically 20 weeks gestation) leads to biased exposure-outcome associations. This bias occurs when the cause of restriction (early pregnancy loss) is influenced by both the exposure and unmeasured factors that also affect the outcome. The aim of this study is to estimate the magnitude of bias resulting from left truncated data in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth. We simulated data for the causal pathway under a collider-stratification mechanism. Simulation parameters were based on an observed birth cohort from Western Australia and a range of plausible values for the prevalence of early pregnancy loss, unmeasured factor U and the odds ratios for the selection effects. Selection effects included the effects of maternal age on early pregnancy loss, U on early pregnancy loss, and U on stillbirth. We compared the simulation scenarios to the observed birth cohort that was truncated to pregnancies that survived beyond 20 gestational weeks. We found evidence of marginal downward bias, which was most prominent for women aged 40 + years. Overall, we conclude that the magnitude of bias due to left truncation is minimal in the association between advanced maternal age and stillbirth.