Bias factor method using random sampling technique

Abstract

ABSTRACTToward the practical use of the bias factor method for actual light water reactor core analyses, the bias factor method using the random sampling technique is newly proposed. The bias factor method is one of the correction methods using information of E/C values in existing measurable systems, to reduce biases and uncertainties of predicted core characteristics parameters. By the aid of the random sampling technique, our proposed bias factor method can be carried out using only forward calculations without any adjoint calculations, and can easily take into account burnup and thermal-hydraulic feedback effects, which are difficult points in the practical application to actual core analyses. Although the statistical error due to the random sampling technique is inevitable in the proposed method, the statistical error can be simply quantified by the resampling technique such as the bootstrap method. As one of the feasibility studies, effectiveness of the proposed method is verified through a numerical experiment which virtually simulates a typical equilibrium pressurized water reactor core. In this verification problem, it is clarified that E/C values of control rod worth at the beginning of cycle under the hot zero power condition are useful information to reduce biases and uncertainties of predicted assembly-wise power distributions during operation of hot full power.