Bias correction of regional climate model simulations for the impact assessment of the climate change in Egypt.

Abstract

This study projected the future temperature change for Egypt during the late of this century (2071-2100) for three representative concentration pathways (RCP2.6, RCP4.5, and RCP8.5), by correcting regional climate model (RCM) simulations of average, maximum, and minimum daily temperature with reference to observed data of 26 stations. Four commonly used methods of bias correction have been applied and evaluated: linear scaling, variance scaling, and theoretical and empirical quantile mapping. The compromise programing results of the applied evaluation criteria show that the best method is the variance scaling, and thus it was applied to transfer the correction factor to the projections. All temperature indices are expected to increase significantly under all scenarios and reach the highest record by the end of the century, i.e., the expected increase in average, maximum, and minimum temperature ranges between 4.08-7.41°C, 4.55-7.89°C, and 3.88-7.23°C, respectively. The largest temperature rise will occur in the summer, with the highest increase in the maximum (minimum) temperature of 10.9°C (10°C) in July and August under RCP8.5. The maximum (minimum) winter temperature, on the other hand, will drop by a maximum of 2°C (1.35°C) under RCP2.6. The Western Desert and Upper Egypt are the regions most affected by climate change, while the northern region of Egypt is the least affected. These findings would help in impact assessment and adaptation strategies and encourage further investigation to evaluate various climate models in order to obtain a comprehensive assessment of the climate change impacts on different hydrometeorological processes in Egypt.