Bias Analysis of PMU-Based State Estimation and Its Linear Bayesian Improvement

Abstract

With the rapidly changing states of modern power systems, real-time state estimation based on phasor measurement units (PMUs) plays an increasingly important role in energy management systems (EMSs). However, due to the complicated distribution of PMU measurement errors, conventional state estimation methods such as the weighted least squares (WLS) estimator suffer from the estimation bias. Consequently, they do not represent the least variance unbiased estimators. To solve the estimation bias, a state estimation method combining the PMU linear measurement model and the linear Bayesian estimation theory is proposed. Specifically, considering the prior information on estimated parameters and the complicated probability distribution of PMU measurement errors, the linear Bayesian theory is applied to PMU-based state estimation to improve the performance of state estimation. To support this method, the correlation between real and imaginary errors is analyzed, and the prior information of estimated parameters is determined by the volatility of system states. When the real states of practical power systems are unavailable, performance indicators for state estimation are proposed based on the estimation residuals. The efficacies of the proposed estimation and evaluation methods are verified using IEEE 14 bus system and a large-scale power grid in China.