Bi-stability of SUDR+K model of epidemics and test kits applied to COVID-19

Abstract

Motivated by the many diverse responses of different countries to the COVID-19 emergency, here we develop a toy model of the dependence of the epidemics spreading on the availability of tests for disease. Our model, that we call SUDR+K, grounds on the usual SIR model, with the difference of splitting the total fraction of infected individuals in two components: patients that are still undetected and patients that have been already detected through tests. Moreover, we assume that available tests increase at a constant rate from the beginning of epidemics but are consumed to detect infected individuals. Strikingly, we find a bi-stable behavior between a phase with a giant fraction of infected and a phase with a very small fraction. We show that the separation between these two regimes is governed by a match between the rate of testing and a rate of infection spread at given time. We also show that the existence of two phases does not depend on the mathematical choice of the form of the term describing the rate at which undetected individuals are tested and detected. Presented research implies that a vigorous early testing activity, before the epidemics enters its giant phase, can potentially keep epidemics under control, and that even a very small change of the testing rate around the bi-stable point can determine a fluctuation of the size of the whole epidemics of various orders of magnitude. For the real application of realistic model to ongoing epidemics, we would gladly collaborate with field epidemiologists in order to develop quantitative models of testing process.