Abstract
In the light of the modernization theory, the present paper proposes an empirical assessment of the population-economy-environment nexus in Italy by investigating the historical trends (1862- 2009) in 58 variables describing five themes (environment, demography, education, trade, agriculture). Socioeconomic variables representing changes in population structure and demographic dynamics compared with indicators of forest expansion allowed verifying the temporal coherence between demographic and forest transitions at the country scale. The study develops an exploratory data analysis framework based on principal component analysis, hierarchical and non-hiera- rchical clustering and identifies four homogeneous time intervals (1862-1899, 1900-1930, 1931- 1970, 1971-2009) in socioeconomic and environmental attributes. Different trends (positive linear, negative linear and non-linear) in the studied variables were identified through hierarchical clustering.
Highlights
Modernization theory proposes a process-based explanation of the transformation from traditional or underdeveloped societies to modern societies
The Principal Component Analysis (PCA) applied to the seven environmental indicators extracted two components with cumulated variance higher than 85%
The specific interest of the present study is to provide an overview of the Italian transition towards modernization with a special focus on environmental variables and a continuous link with the demographic transition following the main changes in the economic structure
Summary
Modernization theory proposes a process-based explanation of the transformation from traditional or underdeveloped societies to modern societies. While traditional society is based on direct interaction between people living close to each other, modern societies stretch further and further across space and time using interactive media [5], symbolic means, English as the lingua franca and the Internet [6]. These changes are evident when studying the long-term evolution of a country (or a region) based on a number of different social, cultural and economic indicators [7]
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