Abstract
AbstractDavid Lewis'sPrincipal Principle(PP) states that our credence in a single case follows from the general probability of all such cases. Against this stands the Challenge Argument (CA) – to show that the inference is justified. Recent (1) law-to-chance, (2) Bayesian, and (3) propensity theories of probability take up the challenge – but, I argue, fall short. Rather, we should understand (4) propensity via Aristotle's analysis of spontaneity (5) and probabilistic reasoning via theAnti-PPand (6) the practice ofbundling one offs, where (7)forced bad-odds one offsilluminate how extensive a role luck plays in our lives.
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