Beyond the binary: Sex and gender diversity in population projections

Abstract

For many people, their gender is the same as their sex recorded at birth. For some, gender and sex recorded at birth may not align, or they may not fall exclusively into the binary categories of male or female. There is growing recognition of the need to have quality estimates and projections of the population in a context beyond binary sex and gender. However, there is currently little demographic literature on this topic and production of such data is limited. In this paper, we use the demographic equation as a framework to describe the implications of considering sex and gender diversity in the production of population projections. In doing so, we consider implications for base population estimates, births, deaths and migration. We also consider implications of acknowledging gender as a concept that can change over time. We outline existing Australian and international approaches to data collection and address implications for the formation of projection assumptions. We conclude by outlining possible future directions for forming population projections that consider sex and gender beyond the binary.