Beyond the 2008 Great Recession: Economic factors and electoral support for the radical left in Europe

Luis Ramiro,Raul Gomez

doi:10.1177/1354068817718949

Abstract

One of the most striking political developments occurring during the Great Recession has been the growth of the radical left in some European countries. Though the literature is far from conclusive, it has generally been argued that the economy is not a main reason driving people’s support for non-mainstream parties (particularly the Greens and the radical right). In this article, we contend that this is not the case for radical left parties (RLPs), which despite pursuing other agendas do still compete very strongly on economic issues. Using individual-level data for 56 elections taking place between 1996 and 2016 in 15 European countries, we find a positive effect of unemployment on support for RLPs, and only very weak evidence that this effect depends on voters’ ideology or whether the mainstream (Social Democrats) left is in office. We conclude that unemployment enables the radical left to increase its support regardless of the political context but does not significantly change by itself the ideological makeup of its electorate.

Highlights

The electoral growth of radical left parties (RLPs) in a number of European countries is one of the most striking political developments taking place after the 2008 Great Recession
This article contributes to this area of research by focusing on whether, and under which conditions, the electoral support of RLPs in Europe is affected by the evolution of the national economy
The dependent variable is voting for a RLP in the most recent general election

Summary

Introduction

The electoral growth of radical left parties (RLPs) in a number of European countries is one of the most striking political developments taking place after the 2008 Great Recession. We analyze the effect of economic factors on RLPs’ support covering a broader period of time than that of the 2008 Great Recession, which enables us to include a diverse range of political and economic contexts. The analysis comprises both aggregate economic indicators for the elections included in the study and individual-level data from national election studies, most of which are part of the Comparative Study of Electoral Systems (CSES) project. The particular combination of individual-level and aggregate data, the time span, and the number of countries analyzed makes this piece of work the most ambitious research so far concerning the relationship between economic conditions and support for RLPs.

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Conclusion