Abstract
Thirty years ago, Adams (1981) depicted a future UK where everyone was a millionaire lorry driver, simply by extrapolating from contemporary official transport growth assumptions. These assumptions underpinned the ‘predict and provide’ approach which then characterised transport planning. Twenty years later, the New Deal for Transport White Paper (1998) abandoned ‘predict and provide’ as unsustainable. This paper argues that the same growth assumptions that Adams took to their logical (absurd) conclusion have re-emerged to define both transport and the drivers of transport demand. While non-aviation transport is supposed to be carbon-neutral by 2050, the implied reductions in emissions rely on an absolute decoupling of transport demand and its drivers for which there is no evidence in current planning. Targets rely on optimistic, narrowly framed technology forecasts and behaviour change assumptions which appear highly unlikely in the present socio-political climate. Moreover, such is the cost of mitigating these tensions between economic growth and other concerns, it is argued that the targeted outcomes of current policy are as undesirable as they are unlikely. The paper concludes by calling for a transport policy which considers mobility in an integrated, holistic fashion, rather than merely as a dimension of economic growth.
Highlights
Politics can be characterised as the management of contradictions
The resulting future appears very different one from the one legally mandated by the UK’s Climate Change Act 2008. This future is outlined by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), tasked under the Act to identify means of achieving 80% cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, and monitor progress towards them
This paper considers the possibility of such radical carbon reductions in light of the recent history of UK transport policy, beginning in 1997, when the New Labour Government declared an intention to abandon predict and provide road building, in the White Paper New Deal for Transport (Dept of the Environment, Transport and the Regions (DETR), 1998)
Summary
Politics can be characterised as the management of contradictions. Transport planning is no exception. The contemporary planner faces a series of conflicts, most pressingly the reconciliation of energy security, carbon emission targets, mobility demands, and economic growth. This challenge is often avoided by undertaking narrowly bounded modelling exercises that assume the continuance of selected trends considered to be desirable. This future is outlined by the Committee on Climate Change (CCC), tasked under the Act to identify means of achieving 80% cuts in greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions by 2050, and monitor progress towards them To date it has produced a number of Carbon Budgets (CCC, 2008; CCC, 2010), which include a target of 26% reduction (relative to 2008) in transport emissions by 2020, and 44% reduction by 2030. Transport policy debates need to expand beyond a narrow focus on a particular approach to economic growth, and consider mobility in a broader sense as a social good that may need to be balanced against others
Sign-in/Register to view highlights & summary Sign-in/Register to access full text options 
Talk to us
Join us for a 30 min session where you can share your feedback and ask us any queries you have
Schedule a callDisclaimer: All third-party content on this website/platform is and will remain the property of their respective owners and is provided on "as is" basis without any warranties, express or implied. Use of third-party content does not indicate any affiliation, sponsorship with or endorsement by them. Any references to third-party content is to identify the corresponding services and shall be considered fair use under The CopyrightLaw.
