Beyond Petroleum? The Diffusion of Alternative Fuels in the United States, 1994–2015

Abstract

ABSTRACT What determines whether technological innovations are adopted or abandoned? We leverage comparative data from three competing alternative fuel technologies to explore the conditions under which social movement organizations and industries support or challenge the adoption of emerging technologies. Empirically, we examine the diffusion of three technologies – electric, ethanol, and compressed natural gas – in the United States between 1994 and 2015. The comparison of results from quantitative analyzes of each case shows that environmental organizations can have different effects on the adoption of technologies that challenge fossil fuel dominance and that the effects change over time. The results also indicate that an incumbent industry that has an opportunity for diversification can positively influence the adoption of the technology, and that partial abandonment results when a technology is not supported by either environmental organizations or an incumbent industry.