Abstract
Global oil seems to be at or close to its full capacity, meaning that oil production is at its peak and soon will begin to decline. This paper discusses what this decline in oil production and availability will mean for the future of cities. Four possible scenarios are suggested: collapse, the ruralization of cities; divided cities in which those with the most means will move to city centers while the dispersed suburbs become the home of the poor; and the resilient, sustainable, solar city. To move toward this last scenario, it is important to take the threat seriously and create peak-oil strategies. Cities should be planned and built with reduced car dependence and peri-urban agricultures should be rebuilt. It is also important to facilitate localism, regulate for the post-oil transition and prepare risk management scenarios for the future.
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