Beyond innumeracy: heuristic decision-making and qualitative misperceptions about immigrants in Finland

Abstract

Population innumeracy (the tendency to overestimate immigrant or minority population sizes) has sparked scholarly interest. However, erroneous size estimates are not the only consequential misperception. There are also qualitative questions that are prone to error, such as the most common origin of immigrants. Using data from the Finnish National Election Survey, the current study provides the first detailed examination of misperceptions about the primary source of immigration. I consider both their extent and correlates. Results indicate that about one-fifth are incorrect, with most faultily identifying Somalia as the primary origin. These misperceptions are related significantly to media exposure and demographic factors, suggesting that they are more than random ignorance. Source misperceptions are strongly associated with perceptions of cultural threat from immigrants, suggesting potential consequences for faulty views. Overall, findings indicate that innumeracy research should expand to include misperceptions beyond size.