Abstract
Water scarcity is a compelling and complex global challenge that has far-reaching implications for both ecological systems and human societies. In response, inter-basin water transfer initiatives have been advocated as potential remedies. Though effective in providing immediate relief, the long-term viability of these initiatives is disputed. Notably, recurring scarcity can result from increased water demand in the recipient basin due to transferred water. Addressing this requires balancing water demand and supply. Beyond supply-focused measures such as water transfers, a crucial strategy involves adopting demand-focused approaches to reduce reliance on such transfers. This study centers on the Gavkhouni basin in Iran, where despite repeated water transfers, water scarcity remains persistent due to climate fluctuations, population growth, agricultural activities, and economic development. The research developed a comprehensive system dynamic model, integrating environmental, social, and economic variables impacting water balance in the region in order to assess the effectiveness of three distinct demand-focused water management strategies, namely, technology-based, cropping pattern-based, and land-based policies, both individually and in synergy. This analysis was conducted across a set of scenarios encompassing climate change, population growth, GDP dynamics, and water transfer patterns. The findings revealed a satisfactory accuracy of the water management system model, with a 6.2% mean absolute error. In addition, findings highlighted the advantages of a multifaceted strategy, with technology-driven interventions and optimized cropping patterns emerging as particularly effective. However, the economic dimensions of these policies warrant comprehensive exploration due to the significant impact they have on the feasibility and effectiveness of the policies. The study emphasizes the need to combine demand-side policies with supply strategies like water transfers. This comprehensive approach is vital for effective water management and long-term water security.
Published Version
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