Beyond Economic Disarmament

Abstract

The volume and value of international trade have grown at exceptional rates in the years since World War II, rates of growth that are significantly higher than those for population or production. In a substantial measure the gains in global welfare that have been achieved during this period are attributable to the growth in international trade. The reduction of barriers to trade, accomplished through the instrumentality of a modest international institution, the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT), has played a major role in facilitating the growth of international trade. GATT is currently, however, at a critical juncture. The issue that GATT faces is: can the liberalized conditions for international trade that have been achieved through complicated and time-consuming negotiations be maintained and extended or will the world drift—or perhaps even rush—toward protectionism?The trade ministers of GATT's 88 member states meeting in Geneva last November sought to promote further progress toward liberalization or at least to prevent backsliding. Whether or not their efforts will succeed remains to be seen. The obstacles in the way of success are formidable, and the instruments for overcoming them are fragile.