Beyond Balancing and Bandwagoning: Thailand's Response to China's Rise

Abstract

This article examines Thailand's response to China's rise. Contrary to predictions made by power transition theories that states respond to rising powers by balancing against or bandwagoning with them, Thailand has reacted to China's rise with no fundamental change in its alignment posture. Thailand sees little threat but much opportunity in China's rise. Thailand is clearly not balancing; it has taken few measures to enhance its military capability or strengthen its alliance with the United States. This article argues that Thai policy can be classified as bandwagoning only under definitions that cannot be distinguished from foreign policy writ large. The policy implications of these findings are that the United States should not to take access to Thai bases or Thai support for a balancing coalition against China for granted.