Beyond 1984: The Anomalies of American Politics

Abstract

Efforts to anticipate electoral politics in 1988 must deal with a number of anomalies or paradoxes. Ronald Reagan was reelected overwhelmingly and as of the first quarter of 1986 has the highest approval rating of any president at a comparable point in office, since polling began. But on issue after issue, sizeable majorities of Americans voice opposition to his specific policy positions. The Republicans have been the majority party on a presidential level in most postwar elections, but the Democrats have retained control of most state political offices, at least one house of Congress, and, as of early 1986, have regained a large lead in party identification. When the public is asked by pollsters to designate themselves as liberal or conservative, the latter consistently receives a plurality, but the term progressive turns out to be the most popular ideological self-descriptor of all. The historical record tells us that Americans almost invariably turn strongly against the party controlling the White House in the mid-year second term Congressional contests, and in presidential races in which there is no incumbent on the ballot. But the record also informs us that incumbent parties benefit greatly from economic upswings and prosperity, circumstances which will probably describe 1986 and may characterize 1988 as well.